The Central Statistics
Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released
the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (October-December)
Q3 of 2011-12, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the
corresponding quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP. The
details of the estimates are presented below.
I ESTIMATES
OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
(a) At constant
(2004-05) prices
2. Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant
(2004-05) prices for Q3 of 2011-12 is estimated at Rs. 13,39,603 crore, as against
Rs. 12,62,794 crore in Q3 of 2010-11, showing a growth rate of 6.1 per cent
over the corresponding quarter of previous year. Quarterly estimates and growth
rates of 2010-11 have undergone revision on account of revision in annual
estimates of 2009-10 and 2010-11. The revision in annual estimate of 2009-10 is
mainly on account of using ASI data for 2009-10 and the new series of IIP for
2010-11 in the manufacturing sector. These changes have also resulted in
changes in estimates of ‘trade, hotels and restaurants’ sector.
3. The economic activities which registered significant growth
in Q3 of 2011-12 over Q3 of 2010-11 are, ‘electricity, gas & water supply’
at 9.0 per cent, ‘construction’ at 7.2 percent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and
communication’ at 9.2 per cent, and ‘financing, insurance, real estate and
business services’ at 9.0 per cent and ‘community, social & personal
services’ at 7.9 per cent. The growth
rate in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’ and
‘manufacturing’ is estimated at 2.7 per cent, (-) 3.1 per cent and 0.4 per
cent, respectively in this period.
4. According to the second advance
estimates of production of crops released on 3.2.2012 by the Department of
Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the
estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q3 of 2011-12, the production of coarse
cereals and pulses during the Kharif season of 2011-12 is estimated to have
declined by 4.6 per cent and 10.3 per cent respectively, and rice has increased
by 11.8 per cent over the corresponding season in the previous agriculture
year. Among the commercial crops, the
production of oilseeds is estimated to have declined by 5.1 per cent during the
Kharif season of 2011-12, while the production of sugarcane and cotton is
expected to grow by 1.6 per cent and 3.3 per cent, respectively, during the agriculture
year 2011-12. However, horticultural crops and livestock products are expected to
grow at 2.6 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively, during 2011-12.
5. According to the latest estimates
available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining,
manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of (-) 4.6 per cent, 0.8
per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2011-12, as compared to the
growth rates of 6.3 per cent, 9.2 per cent and 6.5 per cent in these sectors in
Q3 of 2010-11. In the mining sector,
production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 0.8 per cent and (-)
4.1 per cent in Q3 of 2011-12, as against the growth rates of 1.6 per cent and 15.5
per cent in Q3 of 2010-11. The key indicators of construction sector, namely,
cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 9.4 per
cent and 10.0 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2011-12.
6. Among the services sectors, the key
indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger
kilometers have shown growth rates of 5.3 per cent and 5.6 per cent, respectively
in Q3 of 2011-12, as against the growth rates of 4.0 per cent and 6.2 per cent,
in the corresponding period of previous year.
In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial
vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and
passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of 22.0 per
cent, (-) 4.8 per cent, (-) 2.8 per cent and 12.9 per cent, respectively in Q3
of 2011-12 over Q3 of 2010-11. The key
indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have
shown growth rates of 11.9 per cent and 10.7 per cent, respectively during
April-December, 2011-12 over the corresponding period in 2010-11.
(b) At
current prices
7. GDP at factor cost at
current prices in Q3 of 2011-12, is estimated at Rs. 21,50,159 crore, as
against Rs. 18,82,269 crore in Q3, 2010-11, showing an increase of 14.2 per
cent.
8. The wholesale price index (WPI), in
respect of the groups food articles, non-food articles, fish, minerals,
manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 6.3 per
cent, 4.0 per cent, 20.4 per cent, 22.4 per cent, 7.9 per cent, 2.6 per cent, and 8.9 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2011-12,
over Q3 of 2010-11. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW)
has shown a rise of 8.4 per cent during Q3 of 2011-12 over Q3 of 2010-11.
II ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP
9. The components of
expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and
capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following
paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
10. Private Final Consumption
Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 13,56,576 crore in Q3
of 2011-12 as against Rs. 11,78,121 crore in Q3 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is
estimated at Rs. 8,69,193 crore in Q3 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 8,18,122 crore
in Q3 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at
current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2011-12 are estimated at 58.9
per cent and 60.4 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of
58.4 per cent and 60.4 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2010-11.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
11. Government Final
Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 2,96,369
crore in Q3 of 2011-12
as against Rs. 2,61,431 crore in Q3 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices,
the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 1,75,952 crore in Q3 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 1,68,576
crore in Q3 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at
current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2011-12 are estimated at 12.9
per cent and 12.2 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of
13.0 per cent and 12.5 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2010-11.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
12. Gross
Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 6,37,212
crore in Q3 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 5,99,854 crore in Q3 of 2010-11. At constant
(2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 4,32,169 crore in Q3 of 2011-12
as against Rs. 4,37,564 crore in Q3 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market
prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of
2011-12 are estimated at 27.6 per cent and 30.0 per cent, respectively, as
against the corresponding rates of 29.8 per cent and 32.3 per cent,
respectively in Q3 of 2010-11.
13. Estimates
of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP at
market prices for Q3 and April-December, 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12 at constant
(2004-05) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8.
14. The next release of quarterly GDP
estimate for the quarter January-March, 2012 (Q4 of 2011-12) will be on 31.05.2012.
